689
FXUS64 KBMX 051847
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
147 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS, WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT, THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILING FROM THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT INTO
THE STATE ON TUESDAY, WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
STATE, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER,
CLOSER TO NORMAL, THANKS TO THAT LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
24
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
RIPPLES ALOFT EMANATING FROM A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH, ATOP A BROAD
SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT, WILL RESULT IN SPELLS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FIRST "WAVE" WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE
WIND PROFILES WILL BE STRONGLY VEERED ALONG WITH UPWARDS OF 50
KNOTS OF FLOW OVERHEAD, INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE POOR AS A WARM
FRONT SITS TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST; THUS, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD, OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE PROSPECT
FOR OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY, OF WHICH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING. THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
65 AND ESPECIALLY DOWN THE 20 CORRIDOR SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BULLSEYE IS TO OUR WEST AND IS SOMETHING
WE'LL CLOSELY MONITOR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER OR A TURN TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. BASED ON PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER EACH TAF SITE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT
KANB AND KASN. LEFT MENTION OUT OF EACH TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE, AND WILL ADD WITH LATER FORECAST.
24
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEK WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, NEAR THE MIDDLE 30S
(%) FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
5 MPH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND 5 MPH OR LESS ON TUESDAY THOUGH
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 47 78 55 71 / 0 0 50 80
ANNISTON 48 78 57 72 / 0 0 50 80
BIRMINGHAM 51 79 59 71 / 0 0 70 80
TUSCALOOSA 52 79 59 74 / 0 10 80 90
CALERA 51 79 59 72 / 0 0 70 80
AUBURN 52 79 59 73 / 0 0 40 70
MONTGOMERY 52 81 60 76 / 0 10 50 80
TROY 52 81 58 76 / 0 10 40 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...24
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