351
FXUS64 KBMX 060019
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
719 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM. DID ADD IN SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG
AS TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO EVAPORATE SOME SO THE GROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WE SHOULD
STILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SEEING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
16
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS, WITH WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING FROM
THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE ON
TUESDAY, WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER, CLOSER TO NORMAL,
THANKS TO THAT LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
24
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
RIPPLES ALOFT EMANATING FROM A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH, ATOP A BROAD
SWATH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT, WILL RESULT IN SPELLS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FIRST "WAVE" WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE
WIND PROFILES WILL BE STRONGLY VEERED ALONG WITH UPWARDS OF 50
KNOTS OF FLOW OVERHEAD, INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE POOR AS A WARM
FRONT SITS TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST; THUS, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD, OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE PROSPECT
FOR OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY, OF WHICH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING. THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
65 AND ESPECIALLY DOWN THE 20 CORRIDOR SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BULLSEYE IS TO OUR WEST AND IS SOMETHING
WE'LL CLOSELY MONITOR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER OR A TURN TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. BASED ON PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG AT ANB/ASN, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO HERE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF THIS CYCLE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEK WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, NEAR THE MIDDLE 30S (%) FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL AVERAGE NEAR 7 MPH ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
MUCH HIGHER RHS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 47 78 55 71 / 0 0 60 90
ANNISTON 48 78 57 72 / 0 0 60 80
BIRMINGHAM 51 79 59 71 / 0 10 70 90
TUSCALOOSA 52 79 59 74 / 0 10 80 90
CALERA 51 79 59 72 / 0 10 70 90
AUBURN 52 79 59 73 / 0 10 40 80
MONTGOMERY 52 81 60 76 / 0 10 60 90
TROY 52 81 58 76 / 0 10 40 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...16
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