594
FXUS64 KBMX 061121
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A STOUT UPPER TROUGH
CHURNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
HEADING TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BORDER, IS A LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER ON TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE AREA.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF H5 ENERGY WILL RIP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE 50-80% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO EXPECTING
MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY SATURATED
PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. WPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN THE
SLIGHT RISK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1-1.5". LATEST HREF HINTS AT
A MODERATE CHANCE TO SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 2". SOILS SHOULD
BE HANDLE MUCH OF THIS WATER BUT IF STORMS TRACK OVER SIMILAR
LOCATIONS, WE COULD SEE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DEVELOP. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST STATES, ANOTHER ONE
BUILDS BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULTANT LOWER
HEIGHTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT BAY, WHILE ALSO KEEPING CONDITIONS
A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (AT LEAST
40 PERCENT, AND AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO COME IN WAVES,
RATHER THAN BE A CONTINUOUS (OR EVEN NEAR CONTINUOUS) EVENT,
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS (AND THE INCLUSION OF
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MODELS DO HINT AT A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN,
WITH SOME RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK (JUST BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE).
/61/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. -RA RETURNS BETWEEN 00-06Z AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 06-10Z
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. PREVAILED MVFR AT TCL BASED ON THE 00Z HREF
PROBS. OPTED FOR TEMPOS AT ALL OTHER SITES FOR NOW.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RHS WILL OCCUR TODAY
WITH RHS AROUND 35-45% THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RHS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL STAY IN THE 50-60% RANGE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 79 56 71 59 / 0 60 80 40
ANNISTON 79 58 73 61 / 0 60 80 40
BIRMINGHAM 79 60 72 62 / 10 70 80 40
TUSCALOOSA 79 60 76 63 / 10 80 80 40
CALERA 79 60 74 63 / 10 70 80 40
AUBURN 79 61 73 63 / 10 50 70 40
MONTGOMERY 80 61 78 64 / 20 60 80 40
TROY 80 60 78 62 / 20 50 80 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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