539
FXUS64 KBMX 061706
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A STOUT UPPER TROUGH
CHURNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
HEADING TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BORDER, IS A LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER ON TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE AREA.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF H5 ENERGY WILL RIP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE 50-80% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO EXPECTING
MOSTLY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY SATURATED
PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. WPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN THE
SLIGHT RISK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1-1.5". LATEST HREF HINTS AT
A MODERATE CHANCE TO SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 2". SOILS SHOULD
BE HANDLE MUCH OF THIS WATER BUT IF STORMS TRACK OVER SIMILAR
LOCATIONS, WE COULD SEE SOME HYDRO ISSUES DEVELOP. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, BLOCKED BY A RIDGE AXIS TOWARD
ITS NORTH, WILL RESULT IN DAYS WORTH OF GRAY SKIES AND SPELLS OF
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS (MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FROM DAY TO
DAY). ENSEMBLES SUGGEST IT WON'T BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS THE BOOT AND WE HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TRANSITION TOWARD LESS-ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. -RA RETURNS BETWEEN 00-06Z AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 06-10Z
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. PREVAILED MVFR AT TCL BASED ON THE 00Z HREF
PROBS. OPTED FOR TEMPOS AT ALL OTHER SITES FOR NOW.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN TOTALS OF 1-4 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN-HALF OF THE STATE. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM DAY TO DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 79 55 73 59 / 0 60 80 40
ANNISTON 79 58 74 61 / 0 60 80 40
BIRMINGHAM 79 59 74 63 / 10 70 80 40
TUSCALOOSA 78 59 77 63 / 10 80 80 30
CALERA 78 59 76 64 / 10 70 80 40
AUBURN 78 59 76 63 / 10 60 70 40
MONTGOMERY 79 59 79 64 / 20 70 70 30
TROY 79 59 79 63 / 20 60 70 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...95
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