177
FXUS64 KBMX 061803
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
103 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY, AND
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TODAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TONIGHT. PW VALUES WILL START THE
AFTERNOON IN 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE, ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR TO REMAIN NOT REACH THE GROUND. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS MOISTURE INCREASES, LIGHT SHOWERS CAN
START TO REACH THE GROUND IN ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
CAMS ARE HOLDING ON TO AN AREA OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MS AREA, AND MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH INSTABILITIES LESS THAN 800 J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CONCERNING FACTOR THAT WOULD KEEP THESE
STORMS FROM WEAKENING MORE IS THE SHEAR WILL BE MILDLY STRONG
OVERNIGHT. 0-1 VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS, AND 0-6 KM VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE GUSTING WINDS, BUT NOT
OVERALL BIG SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
MAX, WITH HIGH RAIN RATES EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
ANY TRAINING AREAS OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN LOCATIONS OR
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE DIVERGING ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BETWEEN 1200-1500 J/KG,
THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LOWER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE SWING SHOULD BE MORE MILD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING A LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE STATE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 70S.
24
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, BLOCKED BY A RIDGE AXIS TOWARD
ITS NORTH, WILL RESULT IN DAYS WORTH OF GRAY SKIES AND SPELLS OF
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS (MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FROM DAY TO
DAY). ENSEMBLES SUGGEST IT WON'T BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS THE BOOT AND WE HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TRANSITION TOWARD LESS-ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, AN AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, WITH MOSTLY SHOWERS AND A LOWER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY,
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING, WITH MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AT EACH TAF SITE, IN ADDITION TO AT
LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH ANY ACTIVITY.
24
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN TOTALS OF 1-4 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN-HALF OF THE STATE. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM DAY TO DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 55 73 59 79 / 60 80 40 60
ANNISTON 58 74 61 78 / 60 80 40 60
BIRMINGHAM 59 74 63 78 / 70 80 40 70
TUSCALOOSA 59 77 63 80 / 80 80 30 70
CALERA 59 76 64 78 / 70 80 40 70
AUBURN 59 76 63 78 / 60 70 40 70
MONTGOMERY 59 79 64 79 / 70 70 30 80
TROY 59 79 63 78 / 60 70 30 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...24
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