080
FXUS64 KBMX 070748
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
AS OF WRITING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
GUIDED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTHWEST
ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER. OPTED TO ISSUE A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 03Z RRFS A IS SHOWING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER, GIVING US A
BRIEF LULL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER H5 IMPULSE EJECTS
THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING. CAPES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG, ~30-40 KNOTS 0-6KM SHEAR, AND MODEST LAPSE RATES
WOULD PROMOTE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IT'S LIKELY WE SEE A
SIMILAR LOOK TO THE KBMX RADAR TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH, BRINGING ALONG THE REMAINING SHOWERS/STORM
THROUGH THE AREA.
WE CONTINUE OUR WET PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE GREATEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE LONG TERM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WAVES OF RAIN WILL HAVE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THEM, AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH EACH
SUCCESSIVE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
STARTS TO PILE UP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AROUND OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO TEMPO GROUPS TO CAPTURE THE
TIMING FOR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
REDUCED VIS IS LIKELY WITH ANY PASSING STORMS. CONVECTION BEGINS
TO WANE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A PASSING STORM, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RHS
IN THE 50-70% RANGE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEK. RAIN TOTALS OF 1-4 INCHES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 76 60 82 58 / 70 50 60 50
ANNISTON 76 61 80 60 / 70 50 60 60
BIRMINGHAM 77 63 81 62 / 60 40 60 60
TUSCALOOSA 78 63 81 62 / 60 30 60 50
CALERA 77 63 80 62 / 60 40 70 50
AUBURN 77 64 78 63 / 70 40 70 60
MONTGOMERY 81 65 81 64 / 70 40 80 50
TROY 81 63 80 63 / 70 40 80 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...95
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