183
FXUS64 KBMX 071718
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER THE STATE.
INSTABILITIES WILL BE IN THE 2500 - 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ENOUGH SHEAR AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTING
WINDS. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, SO ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN RATES. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT,
AND ADDITIONAL RAIN, EVEN ON A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE, ANY
STRONG WIND COULD BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES.
TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF
A WESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. PW VALUES ACTUALLY DECREASE AS
WELL, WITH VALUES DECREASING FROM AROUND 1.5/1.6 THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 1.1/1.2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH TRAINING STORMS.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RAIN LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO THE
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE A REBOUND IN INSTABILITY AND PARTLY WITH
MOISTURE BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CAMS ARE REALLY TRYING
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION, SO LEFT POP CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
24
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE LONG TERM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WAVES OF RAIN WILL HAVE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THEM, AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH EACH
SUCCESSIVE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
STARTS TO PILE UP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AROUND OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT ANY PREVAILING MENTION OUT
OF EACH TAF FOR NOW, AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE AROUND EACH TAF SITE. WILL AMEND ONCE STORMS START
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH SEVERAL SITES EXPECTED TO
REACH IFR CEILINGS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH
TIMING OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL AFFECT HOW DENSE THAT FOG IS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
24
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RHS
IN THE 50-70% RANGE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEK. RAIN TOTALS OF 1-4 INCHES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 76 60 82 58 / 70 40 60 50
ANNISTON 76 61 81 60 / 70 40 60 60
BIRMINGHAM 77 62 82 62 / 60 40 60 60
TUSCALOOSA 78 63 82 62 / 60 30 50 50
CALERA 77 62 81 62 / 60 40 60 50
AUBURN 77 63 80 63 / 70 50 60 60
MONTGOMERY 81 63 82 64 / 70 50 60 50
TROY 81 62 81 63 / 70 50 70 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...24
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