490
FXUS64 KBMX 080523
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER THE STATE.
INSTABILITIES WILL BE IN THE 2500 - 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ENOUGH SHEAR AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTING
WINDS. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, SO ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN RATES. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT,
AND ADDITIONAL RAIN, EVEN ON A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE, ANY
STRONG WIND COULD BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES.
TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF
A WESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. PW VALUES ACTUALLY DECREASE AS
WELL, WITH VALUES DECREASING FROM AROUND 1.5/1.6 THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 1.1/1.2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH TRAINING STORMS.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RAIN LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO THE
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE A REBOUND IN INSTABILITY AND PARTLY WITH
MOISTURE BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CAMS ARE REALLY TRYING
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION, SO LEFT POP CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
24
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH GETS TRAPPED WITHIN A 500MB REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A BROAD CUTOFF
500MB CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP JUST TO OUR WEST AND
WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE AMOUNT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB. WE MAY HAVE TO START
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WITH THE SETUP ON SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
ADDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, AND MESOSCALE CONDITIONS WILL DICTATE
THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR US TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS EACH DAY THAT HEAVY RAIN OCCURS, THE SOILS BECOME MORE
SATURATED. FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NEXT MONDAY. DUE TO THE UNSETTLED AND RAINY PATTERN,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
BELOW NORMAL (70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES) FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
56/GDG
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE LONG TERM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE WAVES OF RAIN WILL HAVE A
DEFINITE DIURNAL FLAVOR TO THEM, AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH EACH
SUCCESSIVE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
STARTS TO PILE UP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AROUND OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE IN WITH CEILINGS DROPPING
AT ANB/ASN AD FOG DEVELOPING AT TCL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, GENERALLY FROM 10-14Z. VFR RETURNS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LATEST CAMS ARE NOT SOLD ON MUCH DEVELOPING SO NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL STAY OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MIN RHS
IN THE 50-70% RANGE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEK. RAIN TOTALS OF 1-4 INCHES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 82 59 79 56 / 50 50 60 40
ANNISTON 81 61 78 58 / 50 50 60 40
BIRMINGHAM 82 62 79 59 / 50 50 60 40
TUSCALOOSA 82 62 79 60 / 40 40 50 40
CALERA 81 62 79 60 / 40 50 50 40
AUBURN 80 63 78 62 / 40 50 60 60
MONTGOMERY 82 64 80 62 / 40 40 60 60
TROY 81 64 79 62 / 50 40 70 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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