923
FXUS64 KBMX 080625
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
125 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND WARM AIR OVER THE STATE.
INSTABILITIES WILL BE IN THE 2500 - 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ENOUGH SHEAR AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTING
WINDS. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, SO ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN RATES. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT,
AND ADDITIONAL RAIN, EVEN ON A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE, ANY
STRONG WIND COULD BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES.
TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO OUT OF
A WESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. PW VALUES ACTUALLY DECREASE AS
WELL, WITH VALUES DECREASING FROM AROUND 1.5/1.6 THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 1.1/1.2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH TRAINING STORMS.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RAIN LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO THE
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE A REBOUND IN INSTABILITY AND PARTLY WITH
MOISTURE BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. CAMS ARE REALLY TRYING
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION, SO LEFT POP CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
24
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WHILE ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. WEAKER TROUGHING ALOFT WILL ALSO EXTEND
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION STRETCHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BUILD FURTHER
OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE POTENT
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION.
LOCALLY, THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY JUST TO OUR
WEST TO START THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF A CUT-OFF LOW.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING, BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO START THE DAY SATURDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST
OF MOBILE THAT WILL EXTEND INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME
THEN WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER OUR WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER IN
THE DAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PERSIST
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES SCATTERED (40-60%) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED (20-40%) CHANCES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED (40-70%) CHANCES AREAWIDE
WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED (40-60%) CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF INTERSTATE 59 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WITH ISOLATED (30-40%)
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED (45-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE FORECAST AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTH TO READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WHILE THE RIDGING COLLAPSES OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW NEAR OUR AREA WILL EJECT
NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE ROBUST TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
UPPER LOW IS UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE REMNANT
TROUGHING MIGRATES EAST OVER THE AREA, BECOMING POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FORECAST
TO EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR PENSACOLA, FL AT THIS
TIME. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND A NARROW WARM SECTOR EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER
IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (55-75%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY A MORE CONFINED AREA OF SCATTERED (55-65%)
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED (30-50%) CHANCES ELSEWHERE. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE WITH ISOLATED
(10-30%) CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY POPS JUST AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH READINGS FROM
THE LOW 70S FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON MONDAY TO READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH AND WEST
TUESDAY TO READINGS FROM AROUND 80 FAR EAST TO THE MID 80S
ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE
CONSISTENT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AND WEST.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE IN WITH CEILINGS DROPPING
AT ANB/ASN AD FOG DEVELOPING AT TCL. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, GENERALLY FROM 10-14Z. VFR RETURNS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LATEST CAMS ARE NOT SOLD ON MUCH DEVELOPING SO NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
THE CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50 PERCENT RANGE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AIRMASS
WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 82 59 79 54 / 50 50 60 30
ANNISTON 81 61 78 56 / 50 50 60 40
BIRMINGHAM 82 62 79 58 / 50 50 60 30
TUSCALOOSA 82 62 79 58 / 40 40 50 30
CALERA 81 62 79 59 / 40 50 50 40
AUBURN 80 63 78 61 / 40 50 60 50
MONTGOMERY 82 64 80 62 / 40 40 60 50
TROY 81 64 79 60 / 50 40 70 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...95
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