785
FXUS64 KBMX 081814
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
114 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS CLEARING SKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. YOU CAN ALREADY MAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING,
GENERALLY ALONG OUR RIVERS. FOG WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT'S LIKELY WE
WILL NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TAKING
A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A STOUT UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN
SCOOTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE IS
HIT OR MISS WHEN IT COMES TO TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.
HOWEVER, THEY DO ALL DEPICT AN ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG, 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, AND MODEST
LAPSE RATES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL COME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE WE WILL BE IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER SUPPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AREA. ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY AS PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CUT OFF ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND CONTINUES TO SEND BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WHILE ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. WEAKER TROUGHING ALOFT WILL ALSO EXTEND
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION STRETCHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BUILD FURTHER
OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE POTENT
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION.
LOCALLY, THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY JUST TO OUR
WEST TO START THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF A CUT-OFF LOW.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING, BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO START THE DAY SATURDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST
OF MOBILE THAT WILL EXTEND INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME
THEN WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER OUR WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER IN
THE DAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PERSIST
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES SCATTERED (40-60%) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED (20-40%) CHANCES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED (40-70%) CHANCES AREAWIDE
WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED (40-60%) CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF INTERSTATE 59 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WITH ISOLATED (30-40%)
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED (45-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE FORECAST AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTH TO READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WHILE THE RIDGING COLLAPSES OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW NEAR OUR AREA WILL EJECT
NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE ROBUST TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
UPPER LOW IS UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE REMNANT
TROUGHING MIGRATES EAST OVER THE AREA, BECOMING POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FORECAST
TO EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR PENSACOLA, FL AT THIS
TIME. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND A NARROW WARM SECTOR EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR LATER IN THE
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG
UPPER TROUGH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (55-75%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY A MORE CONFINED AREA OF SCATTERED (55-65%)
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED (30-50%) CHANCES ELSEWHERE. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE WITH ISOLATED
(10-30%) CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY POPS JUST AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH READINGS FROM
THE LOW 70S FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON MONDAY TO READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH AND WEST
TUESDAY TO READINGS FROM AROUND 80 FAR EAST TO THE MID 80S
ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE
CONSISTENT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AND WEST.
05
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
IMPACT SEVERAL TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPO TSRA WAS ADDED TO BHM, ANB, AND ASN WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ALABAMA. ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL LOCATION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST TYPE WINDS AND RAPID REDUCTION OF
VISIBILITY. STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
THE CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50 PERCENT RANGE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AIRMASS
WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 79 54 71 / 60 20 20 50
ANNISTON 60 79 56 71 / 60 20 20 60
BIRMINGHAM 61 79 58 70 / 60 20 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 62 81 58 74 / 40 30 20 50
CALERA 62 80 59 72 / 50 30 20 60
AUBURN 64 81 61 72 / 50 30 30 60
MONTGOMERY 65 82 62 75 / 40 40 40 60
TROY 65 82 60 73 / 30 50 40 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...56/GDG
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