909
FXUS64 KBMX 090109
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
809 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 730 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
GENERALLY FAIR AND VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE BOOTHEEL
OF MISSOURI. AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND 500MB
SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS LINGERS OVER THE REGION, A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
TENNESSEE, NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS MORNING'S 12Z KBMX SOUNDING WAS
INDICATING PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT (-14 TO -15C AT 500MB), STEEP
LAPSE RATES, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH
2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, THAT'S PLENTY OF FUEL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND UPDRAFTS TO BE MAINTAINED. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IN MISSISSIPPI NEAR TUPELO, WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF GREENWOOD. WE'LL BE
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS VERNON, HAMILTON, AND DOUBLE SPRINGS AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. THERE'S A CHANCE THAT WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST BASED ON
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST TYPE WINDS UP TO 60MPH AS HAIL
CORES COLLAPSE TO THE SURFACE. STORM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST, AND STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL CORES WILL LIKELY
EXHIBIT A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT HOWEVER WILL
BE VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH
TIME WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN 6PM AND 11PM THIS
EVENING, AND MANY FOLKS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL. AFTER STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, WE COULD
SEE ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE LEFTOVER CIRRUS DECK FOR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THAT
POTENTIAL. FOLLOWING A FAIRLY MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S, A SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WHAT WILL END UP
BEING OUR CUTOFF MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF TO
OUR WEST OVER THE ARKLATEX. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON IS
ACTUALLY HOLDING THE HEAVIEST RAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SINKING FARTHER SOUTH. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ALSO NOW ADVERTISED TO
ADVECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUNS OF THE CAMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WOULD ACT TO CUT US OFF FROM
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD. POPS WERE LOWERED AS A
RESULT AREAWIDE, BUT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
HAMILTON TO THE LOWER 80S AT EUFAULA.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID. A WET AND
UNSTABLE SETUP REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH A 500MB CLOSED LOW
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ARKLATEX AND A TROPICAL FETCH
OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND UPPER
TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
56/GDG
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WHILE ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. WEAKER TROUGHING ALOFT WILL ALSO EXTEND
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION STRETCHING FURTHER WEST OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BUILD FURTHER
OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE POTENT
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION.
LOCALLY, THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY JUST TO OUR
WEST TO START THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF A CUT-OFF LOW.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING, BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO START THE DAY SATURDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST
OF MOBILE THAT WILL EXTEND INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME
THEN WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER OUR WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER IN
THE DAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PERSIST
EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES SCATTERED (40-60%) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED (20-40%) CHANCES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED (40-70%) CHANCES AREAWIDE
WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED (40-60%) CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF INTERSTATE 59 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WITH ISOLATED (30-40%)
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED (45-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE FORECAST AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO THE MID 70S SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTH TO READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WHILE THE RIDGING COLLAPSES OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW NEAR OUR AREA WILL EJECT
NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE ROBUST TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
UPPER LOW IS UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE REMNANT
TROUGHING MIGRATES EAST OVER THE AREA, BECOMING POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FORECAST
TO EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR PENSACOLA, FL AT THIS
TIME. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND A NARROW WARM SECTOR EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR LATER IN THE
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG
UPPER TROUGH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (55-75%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES FOLLOWED BY A MORE CONFINED AREA OF SCATTERED (55-65%)
ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLATED (30-50%) CHANCES ELSEWHERE. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE WITH ISOLATED
(10-30%) CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY POPS JUST AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE TREND OF DECREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH READINGS FROM
THE LOW 70S FAR EAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH ON MONDAY TO READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH AND WEST
TUESDAY TO READINGS FROM AROUND 80 FAR EAST TO THE MID 80S
ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE
CONSISTENT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH AND WEST.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. MOST OF THE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR EVEN WITH THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF LOWER VSBYS WITH
THE STORMS, BUT MAIN REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND THE RAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NRLY WINDS 5-8KTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRI.
08
FIRE WEATHER
THE CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50 PERCENT RANGE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOIST AIRMASS
WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 59 79 53 73 / 40 20 30 30
ANNISTON 60 79 56 72 / 40 20 30 40
BIRMINGHAM 61 79 58 72 / 40 20 30 40
TUSCALOOSA 62 81 58 75 / 40 20 50 40
CALERA 62 80 59 73 / 40 20 50 50
AUBURN 64 81 61 72 / 40 30 50 60
MONTGOMERY 65 82 63 74 / 20 40 50 60
TROY 65 82 62 73 / 30 50 60 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....56/GDG/05
AVIATION...08
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