796
FXUS64 KBMX 111735
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST OVER HUDSON BAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER TEXAS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WILL DO IT'S BEST TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BOUNDARY PARKED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN IT'S WAKE.
MEANWHILE, SEVERAL BOUTS OF H85-H5 ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION COME THIS AFTERNOON AS WE REACH PEAK
HEATING. WITH LITTLE SHEAR, EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH ON THURSDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES INLAND. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS NEAR THE
1.85-2" RANGE.
LASTLY, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROW, AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL INTO THE 2-5MB
RANGE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEING WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND 592 DECAMETER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. BEFORE THE CLOSED LOW
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST, I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SAW A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. WITH DCAPE VALUES MEASURING IN BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG
ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS, A FEW DOWNBURST-TYPE STORMS MAY END UP
DEVELOPING DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE START TO GATHER CAM FORECAST DATA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND BEGIN TO APPLY SUMMER CONVECTION
ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES.
THE VERY WARM, UNSETTLED, AND TROPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL FULLY
SET IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT, AIDED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP MOST STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
TO BE MOIST ADIABATIC. HOWEVER, AS PWATS RISE WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES
STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. TO SAY THE
LEAST, WE WON'T BE IN DANGER OF ENTERING INTO A DROUGHT ANYTIME
SOON. LOOKING AT POPS, THEY'RE COMING IN AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN
THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE RAINED OUT FOR HOURS DURING
THOSE TIMES, BUT THERE'S A HIGH CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM THAT COULD PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS.
THE ACTIVE, TROPICAL-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. GLOBAL
GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING SOME EARLY INDICATIONS OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER
BUT HOTTER PATTERN SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A STRONG 500MB RIDGE (594+ DECAMETERS) DEVELOPING JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. COULD WE FINALLY SEE OUR FIRST STREAK OF WIDESPREAD
90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURE DAYS AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH? IF SO, WE WOULD ALSO NEED TO START PAYING ATTENTION TO HEAT
INDICES RISING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES WITH VERY MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN THE 7 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BUT MGM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED (30-50%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED (15-30%) COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
(40-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
05
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DROPPING RHS INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S. 20 FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 65 87 67 88 / 0 50 30 70
ANNISTON 67 87 70 88 / 20 60 40 70
BIRMINGHAM 69 87 71 88 / 10 60 30 70
TUSCALOOSA 70 89 72 90 / 10 60 30 60
CALERA 67 86 71 88 / 20 60 30 70
AUBURN 68 86 70 87 / 50 70 40 70
MONTGOMERY 69 88 71 90 / 50 70 40 70
TROY 68 88 70 89 / 50 70 40 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...05
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