677
FXUS64 KBMX 131726
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGAN DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY WHICH IS MORE EVIDENCE THAT IT WON'T TAKE MUCH
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO HELP INITIATE STORMS GIVEN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE. A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
ROTATING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
PRODUCING PVA AND ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST CAMS ARE
STILL RESOLVING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WHICH WILL DEVELOP IN
MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS CLUSTERED ACTIVITY COULD POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT IT'S BECOMING MORE CONDITIONAL AS
THE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY WILL BEGIN TO COLD POOL AND
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. NONETHELESS, A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM
LOOKS LIKE A GIVEN FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY, ESPECIALLY THOSE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT A SIMILAR
SITUATION LOOKS TO OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
MORE ROUNDS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NOTHING LOOKS PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED, BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING SUPPORTING HIGHER THAN
TYPICAL COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HEAT INDICES WILL START
CREEPING UP, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SO WE MAY START
SEEING SOME HEAT IMPACTS TO VULNERABLE POPULATIONS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.
25/OWEN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE WEDGED IN BETWEEN A PERSISTENT 500MB WEAKNESS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND 594 DECAMETER RIDGE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. 700 TO 500MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON SUNDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS
BY SUNDAY EVENING, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
INITIALLY MAY END UP BEING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE THE BEST AVAILABLE 1000-500MB MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AIDED BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN
MUTED DUE TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY MUGGY DUE TO
THE TROPICAL AIR MASS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AS PWATS REMAIN WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
ELEVATED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, AS THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS REMAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST.
JUST WHEN WE THOUGHT A CLEAR INDICATION OF A MUCH WARMER PATTERN
WAS STARTING TO EVOLVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NOW
SIGNALS OF A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. OUR HOTTER PATTERN COULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL A BIT LATER INTO THE MONTH, AS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WOULD SEND A COOL FRONT OUR DIRECTION BY NEXT FRIDAY.
WE'VE GOT A WAYS TO GO TO SEE IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES, BUT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING BY NEXT WEEKEND THE 500MB HEAT RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES ACCORDING TO GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
56/GDG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, AND A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT POTENTIAL AVIATION
IMPACTS RELATED TO THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00-01Z.
LOW CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 10Z WITH
SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AT 8-10 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS VERY MOIST AIR MASS MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL. 20 FT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 7 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 85 67 86 / 60 80 70 70
ANNISTON 72 85 70 86 / 60 80 60 70
BIRMINGHAM 72 85 70 87 / 60 80 60 70
TUSCALOOSA 73 86 71 87 / 50 80 60 70
CALERA 72 85 70 85 / 60 80 60 70
AUBURN 73 85 71 86 / 60 70 50 70
MONTGOMERY 74 88 70 87 / 40 80 50 80
TROY 73 88 70 88 / 40 80 40 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....25/OWEN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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