275
FXUS64 KBMX 140548
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOT A
COMPLETE WASHOUT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY GOOD
WITH PRETTY MUCH GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BEFORE THE RAIN ACTIVITY
BEGINS. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG,
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE PULSE THROUGH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS SO LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT.
16
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA/EASTERN ATLANTIC REGION, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
PRESENT BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURES, JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE STATE. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. INSTABILITIES SHOULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2000 -3000
J/KG WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WIND
PROFILE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH WEAK SHEAR, SO SUMMER TIME,
DEVELOP-BUILD-COLLAPSE STORMS WILL BE THE MOST POPULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION THESE TWO DAYS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WITH THE TROUGH
WEAKENING AND ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EAST, WITH THE HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA AREA MAINTAINING INFLUENCE
OVER THE STATE. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH PW VALUES DECREASING FROM OVER 2 INCHES
TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO
HINT AT A LOW CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER INSTABILITIES, AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUING THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR, HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE TRENDS FOR INCREASES IN THE HEAT
THREAT.
24
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TAFS. MOST OF THE RAIN
IS DONE FOR THE NIGHT. WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. GENERALLY MVFR WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING TO IFR.
SHOWERS BEGIN AFTER 15Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z NORTH AND
WEST AND 21Z SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END BY 3 TO
6Z.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS VERY MOIST AIR MASS MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL. 20 FT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 7 MPH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 67 87 68 / 80 60 70 30
ANNISTON 86 70 86 70 / 80 60 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 86 70 87 70 / 80 60 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 87 71 86 71 / 80 60 70 30
CALERA 85 71 86 71 / 80 60 70 30
AUBURN 85 71 86 71 / 80 50 70 30
MONTGOMERY 88 71 88 71 / 80 50 80 30
TROY 89 70 88 70 / 70 40 80 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16
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