600
FXUS64 KBMX 141815
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
PER MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED OR JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF, SO WE'RE NOT GETTING TRUE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY,
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION, BUT THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH MEAN 1000-500MB RH VALUES AROUND 70-80%.
WILL SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE FOLLOWING HOURS WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY SUB-
SEVERE WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
BRIEFLY INTO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ORIENTATION WITH SUBTLE
ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CURVATURE ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND A SECONDARY APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS ARKANSAS. MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH LESS UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE AND COASTAL CONVECTION TO
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED
SUMMERTIME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
87/GRANTHAM
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA/EASTERN ATLANTIC REGION, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
PRESENT BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH PRESSURES, JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE STATE. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. INSTABILITIES SHOULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG WITH PW VALUES NEAR MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WIND
PROFILE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH WEAK SHEAR, SO SUMMER TIME,
DEVELOP-BUILD-COLLAPSE STORMS WILL BE THE MOST POPULAR MODE OF
CONVECTION THESE TWO DAYS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WITH THE TROUGH
WEAKENING AND ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EAST, WITH THE HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA AREA MAINTAINING INFLUENCE
OVER THE STATE. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW COULD SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH PW VALUES DECREASING FROM OVER 2 INCHES
TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO
HINT AT A LOW CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE THE DAY WITH THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER INSTABILITIES, AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUING THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR, HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE TRENDS FOR INCREASES IN THE HEAT
THREAT.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN TODAY WITH
AVIATION IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. USED A MIX OF PROB30S AND TEMPOS TO INDICATE THE
GREATEST WINDOW FOR TSRA AT EACH SITE. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE FROM 00-02Z WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE AROUND
09-10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO MIX APART. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITHIN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL. 20 FT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 8 MPH
THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 85 68 87 / 70 50 30 80
ANNISTON 69 85 70 86 / 70 50 30 80
BIRMINGHAM 69 85 70 86 / 70 50 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 71 86 71 88 / 60 70 30 80
CALERA 70 85 70 86 / 60 60 30 80
AUBURN 70 86 71 86 / 40 50 30 70
MONTGOMERY 69 88 71 89 / 50 70 30 80
TROY 69 87 69 89 / 40 70 30 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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