227
FXUS64 KBMX 282344
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS, WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA IN
RELATION TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER GEORGIA ALLOWING FOR PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER COOSA AND TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD I-85. MORE AGITATED CUMULUS IS FORMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS MCV, WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO APPEAR ALREADY.
MORNING CAM GUIDANCE FOCUSES SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO HAVE
UPPED POPS TO AROUND 60% TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHER AREAS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE POPS AROUND 40-50% INTO THE EVENING, WITH 30%
CHANCES LASTING THROUGH 10 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY.
HIGHEST SBCAPE AND DCAPE VALUES ARE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA, APPROXIMATELY 4000 AND 900 J/KG, RESPECTIVELY.
MANY, BUT NOT ALL, CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE, INCLUDING
THE BIRMINGHAM METRO. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE GENERAL TENDENCY OF CAMS
TO UNDER PERFORM THE INITIAL CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GENERAL
CHAOTIC MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS MAKING DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
HARDER TO PREDICT, HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40-50% FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AGAIN TODAY,
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD NUDGE STORMS
SOUTHWARD. MOTIONS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED
LATER ON BY SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WHICH MAY COUNTERACT MEAN
FLOW. ANY STORMS SITTING OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO MAY
POSE A MINOR FLOODING RISK, AS WAS SEEN IN THE BIRMINGHAM METRO
YESTERDAY.
MICROBURST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOWER TODAY, WITH A FAIRLY MOIST
SOUNDING PROFILE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO MORE MEAGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY SUMMERTIME
STORMS, THERE IS STILL A MEASURABLE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURSTS.
12
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MINIMAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
HIGHEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS (80-90%). HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES DO NOT NECESSITATE ANY ISSUANCE OF HEAT-RELATED
PRODUCTS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105F THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
12
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK DOWN, BUT A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
CONTENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE FROM
CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS BY TUESDAY, THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP
A CONVERGENT ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ABOVE WHAT WE
NORMALLY SEE ON A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY. IT'S YET TO BE SEEN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE, BUT GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A
RETURN TO A DRIER AIRMASS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN. IF THIS
TREND HOLDS, THEN WE SHOULD SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
WE HAVE ANOTHER EVENING WHERE AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD
LAST A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY
COLLAPSE. MENTIONED SOME MVFR FOG FOR ASN TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. MORE LATE AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUN.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
08
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 55 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 89 68 87 / 30 60 50 80
ANNISTON 69 88 69 86 / 30 60 50 80
BIRMINGHAM 70 89 70 86 / 30 60 50 80
TUSCALOOSA 72 88 72 86 / 30 60 40 80
CALERA 70 87 70 86 / 30 60 50 80
AUBURN 69 87 70 86 / 50 60 40 80
MONTGOMERY 70 90 70 86 / 50 70 50 80
TROY 68 89 69 86 / 50 70 50 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12/86/MARTIN
AVIATION...08
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