872
FXUS64 KBMX 291118
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST REGION, BUT A
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO CREATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AS MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. MODELS
INDICATE PWATS WILL RISE TO 2+ INCHES TODAY WHICH WILL FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF RAIN. IT'S UNCERTAIN EXACTLY
HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE, BUT GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE
WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE INITIATION MAY
OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE SOUTH AIDED BY WEAK
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE BEING OVERCOME
BY THE RAIN-COOLED AIR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST, EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL DAMPEN THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, CONTRIBUTING TO ANOTHER DAY OF NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL BE A LIMITATION TO MICROBURST POTENTIAL,
AND DCAPE VALUES DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT IT'S SUMMERTIME
SO ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY,
SUB-SEVERE WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH MOISTURE CONTENT AS
HIGH AS IT WILL BE, STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DRY AIR MAY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRY AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR
WEST PROMOTING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE REMNANT
AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION. WHILE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, A DRIER FORECAST IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH ALL
TERMINALS CARRYING SHRA AND TSRA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
THROUGH 30/03Z, BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE THEN.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO 30/06Z, WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MIN RH AS HIGH AS 65-80% ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OTHER THAN GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 69 86 70 / 60 40 80 40
ANNISTON 86 70 85 71 / 60 40 80 40
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 87 71 / 60 50 80 30
TUSCALOOSA 88 72 88 72 / 60 40 80 30
CALERA 87 72 87 71 / 60 50 80 30
AUBURN 85 70 86 70 / 60 50 80 30
MONTGOMERY 89 71 88 71 / 60 50 80 40
TROY 89 69 87 70 / 70 50 90 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION.../44/
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