708
FXUS64 KBMX 291727
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION HAS SPARKED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES IN ANY AREAS IN WHICH STORMS LINGER.
IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IN SPOTS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON UNTIL STORMS OVERSPREAD MORE OF THE REGION AND LOWER AIR
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 80S. HEAT INDEX, WHILE STILL A LITTLE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, MAY RESULT IN HEAT-RELATED ISSUES FOR
ANYONE PERFORMING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY, HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED,
WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AS WITH TODAY, DOWNBURST POTENTIAL FOR
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS (LACK OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR), BUT GUSTY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGE ARE STILL POSSIBLE, AS IS THE USUAL CASE WITH SUMMERTIME
STORMS. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.
12
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME REGARDING THE FRONT REACHING THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND, AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
12
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME DRY AIR MAY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRY AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR
WEST PROMOTING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE REMNANT
AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION. WHILE THE COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, A DRIER FORECAST IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AFFECTING NORTHERN SITES EARLIER AND MGM
LATER. LOWERS VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
12
FIRE WEATHER
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MIN RH AS HIGH AS 65-80% ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OTHER THAN GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 88 70 87 / 40 80 40 80
ANNISTON 69 87 71 84 / 40 80 40 80
BIRMINGHAM 71 87 71 87 / 50 80 40 80
TUSCALOOSA 72 87 73 86 / 40 80 40 80
CALERA 71 86 72 85 / 50 80 40 80
AUBURN 70 85 71 83 / 50 80 40 80
MONTGOMERY 71 88 71 86 / 50 80 40 80
TROY 69 87 70 86 / 50 90 40 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page