992
FXUS64 KBMX 300545
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGER TROUGHING REGIME DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST REGION. AT THE
MOMENT, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS MOST PROMINENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WHICH IS ACTING TO DAMPEN THE EFFECTS OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF.
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH A PWAT OF 2.02" MEASURED ON
THE 00Z BMX RAOB. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH THE BASE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
ALL THIS TO SAY, THE CURRENT AND EVOLVING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY,
EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOTION WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY ERRATIC
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUB-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT TIMES, SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AND
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE
COOLING ONCE THE RAIN EXPANDS IN COVERAGE.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THEY WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL TREND MUCH DRIER BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND DEEP, CONTINENTAL RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING
THIS TIME, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND A WARMING TREND IN OUR TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A CUTOFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK MAY BECOME PINCHED OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND CONTINENTAL RIDGE. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THAT COULD AFFECT OUR FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT IT
COULD REINTRODUCE SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER US AT THAT TIME.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S RAIN. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL SINCE LOW-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY SATURATED. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. CONTINUED TO TARGET THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR TSRA, BUT WILL
HOPEFULLY NARROW DOWN THAT WINDOW IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, BUT HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
WITH TSRA ACTIVITY.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE QUITE HIGH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIN RH AS HIGH AS 65-80%. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OTHER THAN GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDWEEK ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 70 87 68 / 70 40 90 40
ANNISTON 87 71 85 70 / 70 40 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 86 71 / 80 50 80 40
TUSCALOOSA 87 72 88 72 / 80 60 80 30
CALERA 87 71 86 71 / 80 50 80 40
AUBURN 85 71 84 71 / 70 40 90 50
MONTGOMERY 88 71 86 71 / 70 40 90 50
TROY 87 70 86 70 / 70 40 90 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
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