930
FXUS64 KBMX 301701
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A THICK LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS KEPT MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA SOCKED IN THIS MORNING, BUT THAT IS SLOWLY STARTING
TO DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAMS DEVELOP AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 19Z, WITH THE ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, HIGH PWAT
VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL, AIDED BY GENERALLY
SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS. DOWNBURST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL AGAIN, WITH A FAIRLY MOIST 12Z SOUNDING WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION UP INTO THE UPPER LEVELS. STILL, GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.
A FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CELLS AND CELL CLUSTERS SHOULD QUICKLY FORM AND BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY, MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
SYNOPTIC FORCING MAY INCREASE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CELLS GROWING UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIND WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-59/20 CORRIDOR TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES UP TO 2.1 INCHES, SO TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
12
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED BASED ON THE NEWEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.
12
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THEY WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL TREND MUCH DRIER BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND DEEP, CONTINENTAL RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING
THIS TIME, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND A WARMING TREND IN OUR TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A CUTOFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK MAY BECOME PINCHED OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND CONTINENTAL RIDGE. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
HOW THAT COULD AFFECT OUR FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT IT
COULD REINTRODUCE SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER US AT THAT TIME.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP,
HOWEVER, BRINGING A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED CIGS
AND VIS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH ROUGHLY 00Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN LOWERED VIS.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
12
FIRE WEATHER
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIN RH AS HIGH AS 65-80%. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OTHER THAN GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MID-WEEK ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA, WITH MIN RH VALUES 45-55%, BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 86 69 89 / 50 90 40 20
ANNISTON 70 85 70 87 / 50 90 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 71 86 70 87 / 50 80 40 20
TUSCALOOSA 73 85 73 89 / 50 80 30 20
CALERA 71 85 71 88 / 50 80 40 20
AUBURN 70 83 70 85 / 50 90 50 30
MONTGOMERY 71 86 71 88 / 50 90 50 30
TROY 70 84 70 86 / 50 90 50 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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