335
FXUS64 KBMX 011700
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
WHAT IS THAT BLUE LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST? YES, THAT IS A FRONT AND
IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AROUND 1 PM IN THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STORMS BY 2 TO 3 PM.
ACTIVITY REALLY INCREASES NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND 4 PM,
WITH ACTIVITY REALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 5 PM THROUGH
AROUND 8 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE IN THE NORTH AFTER 9 PM BUT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS OR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
EVENING APPROACHES THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA AND WILL
START THE SLOW PUSH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST.
16
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, REINFORCING THE DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WE DO SEE A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TURNING WARMER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S, WITH A
FEW MID 90S IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH ALL TERMINALS CARRYING TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE AT
THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE FROM 21Z THROUGH 2Z, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH FROM 23Z TO 4Z. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT BY 3
TO 6Z, MOST TERMINALS WILL RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER, SOME
REDUCED VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EET, TCL ASN, AND MGM AS WE
WORK TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIMITED TO MGM
AFTER 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH WITH MIN RH AS HIGH AS 65-80%. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
MPH BUT HIGHER WITH GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOMORROW ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MIN RH WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 50% IN THE WEST
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AREA-WIDE
ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 69 89 66 / 80 50 0 0
ANNISTON 87 70 88 66 / 80 70 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 89 68 / 80 60 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 89 72 91 69 / 80 50 0 0
CALERA 88 72 89 69 / 80 70 0 0
AUBURN 85 71 87 69 / 70 60 20 0
MONTGOMERY 89 72 89 69 / 70 70 20 0
TROY 88 70 88 69 / 70 50 30 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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