196
FXUS64 KBMX 012356
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
WHAT IS THAT BLUE LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST? YES, THAT IS A FRONT AND
IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP AROUND 1 PM IN THE NORTHWEST AND THEN STORMS BY 2 TO 3 PM.
ACTIVITY REALLY INCREASES NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND 4 PM,
WITH ACTIVITY REALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 5 PM THROUGH
AROUND 8 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE IN THE NORTH AFTER 9 PM BUT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS OR REDEVELOPMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
EVENING APPROACHES THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA AND WILL
START THE SLOW PUSH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST.
16
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, REINFORCING THE DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WE DO SEE A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TURNING WARMER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S, WITH A
FEW MID 90S IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MGM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND
POSSIBLY ASN. THE OTHER SITES MAY ONLY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS. STRATUS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT, SOME SITES QUICKER THAN
OTHERS, BUT LIFR IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST BEFORE MORNING. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CREATING VFR CONDITIONS BY
13-16Z. NO AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ANY OF THE TAF
SITES ON WED WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
08
FIRE WEATHER
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH WITH MIN RH AS HIGH AS 65-80%. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
MPH BUT HIGHER WITH GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOMORROW ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MIN RH WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 50% IN THE WEST
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AREA-WIDE
ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 89 66 90 / 50 0 0 0
ANNISTON 70 88 66 89 / 70 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 71 89 68 89 / 60 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 72 91 69 91 / 50 0 0 0
CALERA 72 89 69 90 / 70 0 0 0
AUBURN 71 87 69 90 / 60 20 0 10
MONTGOMERY 72 89 69 91 / 70 20 0 0
TROY 70 88 69 91 / 60 30 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...08
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