895
FXUS64 KBMX 020633
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
133 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ZONE OF DRY AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PER SURFACE OBS, THE
COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SO DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST OF THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
WEST. IT'S SUMMERTIME SO DON'T GET EXCITED ABOUT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IT WAS MORE OF A DRY AIR FRONT THAN ANYTHING, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. SUNNY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGION.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LEVELS DOWN COMPARED TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN LATELY, SO HEAT INDICES
WILL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE SOME CAUTION WHILE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS AS INDICES MAY
REACH 100F AT TIMES EACH AFTERNOON.
A CUTOFF LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND, DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE'S
STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, AND IT
MAY NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT TRANSLATES WESTWARD,
SO TIME WILL TELL ON WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN
APPRECIABLE CHANGE ON OUR RAIN CHANCES, BUT THERE WILL BE AN
UPTICK IN ROUTINE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
LOW CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD DECK TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AS
WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DRY AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY, BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
86/MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH, AND DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TO THE AREA. MIN RH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, RANGING FROM 50% IN THE NORTH TO 70% IN THE SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THE DRIER AIR
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TOMORROW WITH RH RANGING FROM
45-55% DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE
SATURATED AND THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 88 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 89 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
CALERA 89 69 91 70 / 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 88 70 91 71 / 30 0 10 0
MONTGOMERY 89 70 91 70 / 30 0 0 0
TROY 88 69 91 70 / 40 10 10 0
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...86/MARTIN
LONG TERM....86/MARTIN
AVIATION...86/MARTIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page