191
FXUS64 KBMX 021732
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE 20 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARBY FRONT.
FOR THURSDAY, RELATIVELY DRIER FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL
INCLUDE MEANDERING HIGH- AND LOW-PRESSURE AXES ACROSS OUR REGION.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INITIALLY BE DISPLACED TO OUR
SOUTH, BEFORE MIGRATING BACK TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. BASED ON THAT
TREND AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONE, SPOTTY/LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND (NOT LOOKING AS
ACTIVE AS RECENT DAYS), LEADING UP TO POTENTIALLY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK. MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT RISKS WILL EXIST EACH DAY.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS MGM WHERE A
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO BREAK UP; HAVE A MVFR
CEILING THERE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWED BY PROB30 FOR
NEARBY SHOWER/STORM RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH, AND DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TO THE AREA. MIN RH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, RANGING FROM 50% IN THE NORTH TO 70% IN THE SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THE DRIER AIR
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TOMORROW WITH RH RANGING FROM
45-55% DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE
SATURATED AND THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 67 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 67 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 68 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 69 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
CALERA 68 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
AUBURN 70 91 71 92 / 0 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 69 91 71 94 / 0 0 0 10
TROY 69 91 71 93 / 10 0 0 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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