300
FXUS64 KBMX 030708
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
208 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW (WITH NO
OBVIOUS UPSTREAM MCS SYSTEMS) WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND ALL BUT (PERHAPS) THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
/61/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO
OUR NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, PUTTING US ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS, AND LESS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, WHICH IN TURN WILL
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE DIURNALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION
REGIME TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO COMES HIGHER HEAT INDEX LEVELS. ENSEMBLE
BASED PROBABILISTIC SCHEMES SUGGEST THAT BY THE TIME WE GET TO
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OR NEXT WEEK, THERE'S A CHANCE THAT AFTERNOON
APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA (SUMTER, GREENE,
HALE, MARENGO COUNTIES -ISH).
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
ALL SIGNS POINT TO DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. JUST SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM AROUND 15Z TO ABOUT 00Z. NO WEATHER RELATED
AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH, AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER IN TO THE AREA TODAY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 67 93 69 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 89 68 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 89 69 92 72 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 90 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 0
CALERA 90 70 92 72 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 91 72 91 72 / 0 0 20 10
MONTGOMERY 91 70 93 72 / 0 0 20 10
TROY 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...02
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