576
FXUS64 KBMX 040540
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY OUTDOOR FIREWORKS
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUES AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE, WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND. THE DRIER AIR THAT
IS PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL.
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE CELEBRATORY EVENTS THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES, A STRAY SHOWER/STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR
THE AREAS FROM I-20 AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, BEST CHANCES, STILL
ONLY ISOLATED, WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85.
NOTHING TO CANCEL ANY PLANS AS ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE BRIEF. MOST, IF
NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 8 TO 9 PM, SO MOST
FIREWORK DISPLAYS SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO.
16
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES GETTING MUCH WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S, AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL
IN THE SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN REMAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO WORK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME, SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS
COMPLEXES TO MOVE IN THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS, INCLUDING MGM.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL THE HIT AND MISS
SUMMERTIME VARIETY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 70 93 68 / 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 92 71 92 69 / 10 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 94 73 94 72 / 10 0 10 0
CALERA 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 0
AUBURN 91 72 91 70 / 10 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 93 72 93 71 / 20 10 10 10
TROY 92 71 92 70 / 20 10 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION.../61/
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