316
FXUS64 KBMX 040703
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
203 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE SHORT TERM. MOST
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROCEED WITHOUT ANY RAIN
ISSUES. THE ONLY PLACE WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 20 OR 30 PERCENT THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, TYPICAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS,
AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
/61/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE STORY WILL BE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. WHILE WE CAN GET A GENERAL SENSE OF
INCREASED CONVECTION EACH DAY, THERE'S NO OBVIOUS DAY THAT STANDS
OUT WITH EVEN A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD GET UP CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
IN A FEW SPOTS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL EVENTUALLY
NEED TO WATCH FOR SPECIFICS, FOR CONSIDERATION OF HEAT RELATED
HAZARD PRODUCTS.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS, INCLUDING MGM.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST TODAY OR
SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL THE HIT AND
MISS SUMMERTIME VARIETY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 70 93 68 / 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 92 71 92 69 / 10 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 94 73 94 72 / 10 0 10 0
CALERA 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 0
AUBURN 91 72 91 70 / 10 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 93 72 93 71 / 20 10 10 10
TROY 92 71 92 70 / 20 10 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...02
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