732
FXUS64 KBMX 041710
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
HAPPY JULY 4TH! A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF THE CELEBRATORY EVENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY FLOW, A STRAY SHOWER/STORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR THE AREAS FROM I-59 AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
NOTHING TO CANCEL ANY PLANS AS ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE BRIEF. MOST,
IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 8 TO 9 PM, SO
MOST FIREWORK DISPLAYS SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AGAIN. FOR SATURDAY, THE FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC. HOW FAR
DOES THE BEST CONVERGENCE AREA REACH INTO OUR AREA AND DOES
ANYTHING DEVELOP FURTHER WEST? MODELS ARE TRENDING TO AN INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AREA.
PROBLEM RIGHT NOW WOULD BE PLACEMENT, THUS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME 20 POPS UNFORTUNATELY THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION WITH RANGE OF SCENARIOS.
16
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES GETTING MUCH WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S, AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY MONDAY WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONT ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME, SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS COMPLEXES TO MOVE IN THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
21Z, BUT ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS THE
SITES. STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE TAFS, BUT
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE SITUATION THROUGH 02Z. BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH, INCLUDING MGM, SO INCLUDED VCSH
THROUGH 23Z.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
16
FIRE WEATHER
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL THE
HIT AND MISS SUMMERTIME VARIETY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 93 69 93 / 0 10 0 10
ANNISTON 70 92 69 92 / 0 10 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 72 93 71 93 / 0 20 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 73 94 72 94 / 0 20 0 10
CALERA 71 93 70 93 / 10 20 0 10
AUBURN 71 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 72 93 72 93 / 10 10 10 20
TROY 71 92 70 91 / 10 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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