679
FXUS64 KBMX 050534
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
HAPPY JULY 4TH! A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF THE CELEBRATORY EVENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY FLOW, A STRAY SHOWER/STORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR THE AREAS FROM I-59 AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
NOTHING TO CANCEL ANY PLANS AS ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE BRIEF. MOST,
IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 8 TO 9 PM, SO
MOST FIREWORK DISPLAYS SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AGAIN. FOR SATURDAY, THE FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC. HOW FAR
DOES THE BEST CONVERGENCE AREA REACH INTO OUR AREA AND DOES
ANYTHING DEVELOP FURTHER WEST? MODELS ARE TRENDING TO AN INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AREA.
PROBLEM RIGHT NOW WOULD BE PLACEMENT, THUS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN SOME 20 POPS UNFORTUNATELY THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION WITH RANGE OF SCENARIOS.
16
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES GETTING MUCH WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S, AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY MONDAY WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONT ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME, SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCS COMPLEXES TO MOVE IN THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
NOT SURE IF IT IS TRULY FOG, OR SOME SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIREWORKS,
OR (MOST LIKELY) A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. BUT, VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED TO 5 TO AS LOW AS JUST BELOW 2 MILES ACROSS MANY AREAS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING
LIGHT, I DO NOT FORESEE ANYTHING THAT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
AFTER SUNRISE, LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD START UP ENOUGH TO BRING
VISIBILITIES UP TO GREATER THAN 6SM FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT WILL
LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRACTICALLY ALL COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. I'VE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WE'VE GOT PLENTY
OF TIME TO UPDATE THINGS IF LATER MODEL OR OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY, BUT STILL THE
HIT AND MISS SUMMERTIME VARIETY. MIN RH WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 69 93 69 / 10 0 10 0
ANNISTON 92 69 92 70 / 10 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 71 93 72 / 20 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 94 72 94 72 / 20 0 10 0
CALERA 93 70 93 71 / 20 0 10 0
AUBURN 91 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 10
MONTGOMERY 93 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
TROY 92 70 91 71 / 10 10 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION.../61/
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