735
FXUS64 KBMX 050640
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
140 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT AIDED IN MOVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY IS NOW LIKELY TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE, AND PERHAPS
A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TD3, SHOULD
(SHOULD) KEEP CONDITIONS FREE FROM RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FOLKS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. SUNDAY WE'LL RESTART THE PROCESS
OF DAILY INCREMENTAL POP INCREASES, AS WE REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
TYPICAL MID-SUMMER PATTERN.
/61/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THE WEATHER STORY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY. AT THIS POINT, THERE'S STILL NO OBVIOUS TIME
FRAME THAT STANDS OUT WITH A PREDICTABLE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD GET UP CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND WE'LL
EVENTUALLY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT RELATED HAZARD
PRODUCTS.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
NOT SURE IF IT IS TRULY FOG, OR SOME SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIREWORKS,
OR (MOST LIKELY) A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. BUT, VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED TO 5 TO AS LOW AS JUST BELOW 2 MILES ACROSS MANY AREAS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING
LIGHT, I DO NOT FORESEE ANYTHING THAT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
AFTER SUNRISE, LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD START UP ENOUGH TO BRING
VISIBILITIES UP TO GREATER THAN 6SM FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT WILL
LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRACTICALLY ALL COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. I'VE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WE'VE GOT PLENTY
OF TIME TO UPDATE THINGS IF LATER MODEL OR OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
OVERALL A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AT MOST THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN RH
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 68 95 70 / 0 0 10 0
ANNISTON 92 68 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 93 71 95 73 / 0 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 94 72 95 72 / 10 0 10 0
CALERA 93 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 0
AUBURN 91 71 92 72 / 0 0 20 10
MONTGOMERY 94 72 95 72 / 10 0 20 0
TROY 92 70 94 71 / 10 10 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...02
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