532
FXUS64 KBMX 261817
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT 11 AM - 9 PM SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA
- THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF
EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS WITH NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AFFECTING
PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE SOUTHEAST US REMAIN DOMINATED BY A
GENERALLY RETROGRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL PATTERN, WITH A RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, WITH
WESTERLIES DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE TAIL END OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MS GULF COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SEA BREEZE FEATURE MOVES NORTHWARD OFF
THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AFTER SUNSET, BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BY 9 PM. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA, AND THE
HEAT WILL BE ON FULL BLAST. DUE TO THE ONSET OF WHAT WILL BE A
SOMEWHAT PROLONGED HEAT EVENT, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND
HEAT INDICES RUNNING RIGHT AROUND THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD. WHILE
IT'S TECHNICALLY A MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW, HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT ISSUE AND GET FOLKS MOVING IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND ACTIONS EARLY. FOR MOST, IT WILL
BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR ANYWAY, AND WITH FOLKS
MORE LIKELY TO BE ENJOYING THE OUTDOORS TOMORROW, THE DECISION WAS
PRETTY CLEAR TO ME.
ANYWAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 90S
MONDAY, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
FOR NOW, I WILL DEFER ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR MONDAY TO
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO ALLOW MORE TIME TO COLLABORATE WITH NEIGHBORS
AND FINE TUNE THE FORECAST.
I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO EITHER DAY,
BUT EVEN THAT CHANCE SEEMS LIMITED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20
BOTH DAYS.
02
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL
26 2025
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD AND WE
CONTINUE TO BAKE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY, FIRST AT THE SURFACE, THAN GRADUALLY EXTEND HIGHER
UP. FOR ANYONE THAT'S BEEN HERE AWHILE, YOU KNOW THAT'S A RECIPE
FOR EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL PEEK WITH THE
HEAT FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 IN
MANY LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A SURE THING, BUT WE
MAY BE FLIRTING WITH THE NEED FOR EXTREME HEAT PRODUCTS. RIGHT
NOW, THERE ARE A FEW PIXELS OF THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 110 FOR
TUESDAY, BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.
THE PRECIP FORECASTS BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS WE LOOK AT
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGES MORE
ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE WESTERLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST, AND
INTRODUCE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL. ONE THING
TO NOTE...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO GET VERY "HEALTHY" CONVECTION AT
THE TAIL END OF A HEAT EVENT AS THE EXTRA HEAT JUST PROVIDES EXTRA
INSTABILITY TO THE ADVANCING SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK,
AND SHOULD RETURN US TO JUST "NORMAL" SUMMER HEAT.
02
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SHOULD
MATURE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SPOTTY NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A
PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT ALL SITES. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, THERE IS A
SMALL BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
87
FIRE WEATHER
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST. EXPECT DRIER AND
HOTTER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES DECREASING WHILE LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY REMAINS
HIGH. AS A RESULT, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 95 74 95 / 10 20 0 20
ANNISTON 73 93 74 94 / 10 10 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 74 95 76 97 / 20 20 0 10
TUSCALOOSA 74 95 76 97 / 20 10 0 10
CALERA 74 94 76 95 / 20 10 0 10
AUBURN 74 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 74 95 76 98 / 20 10 0 10
TROY 72 95 75 98 / 20 10 0 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-
MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...87
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