121
FXUS64 KBMX 270518
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT 11 AM - 9 PM SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA
- THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF
EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS WITH NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AFFECTING
PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
EXPECT THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE TO BROADEN, EXTENDING FROM OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COASTLINE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CONTRACT IN SIZE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE
WESTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THEN CONTINUING TO DRIFT
WESTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DRIFT FURTHER WEST, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
INCREASING HEAT CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED (10-20%) AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED (10-25%) CHANCES ACROSS ALL
BUT THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH ISOLATED (25-45%) CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED (50-60%) CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE HEAVY OR STRONG
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY TEMPORARY HEAT RELIEF FROM THE GENERALLY AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO THE MID 90S ELSEWHERE SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY READINGS FROM THE LOW 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF WITH
ACCUMULATING HEAT STRESS THROUGH THIS DURATION AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT INDEX
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO VALUES
NEAR 105 WEST AND CENTRAL SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS MONDAY.
THE MOST MISERABLE CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDEX READINGS FROM AROUND 100 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO READINGS
AROUND 107 WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
05
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DECREASE ITS FOOTPRINT FURTHER IN
ELONGATED FORM OVER MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL MIGRATE
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL SUPPORT THE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGING
BECOMES MORE COMPACT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION WHILE A
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS BECOMES MORE DEFINED OVER OUR AREA. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH PUSHES SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE WHILE SURFACE
TROUGHING PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE MID-
LEVEL WEAKNESS PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND FORCES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD, ROUGHLY
ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 278 CORRIDOR EARLY ON FRIDAY AND DRIFTING
FURTHER SOUTH TO ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
GRADUAL HEAT RELIEF WILL COME FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SCATTERED (55%-70%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED
BY SCATTERED (55-70%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 FAR
EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE
THURSDAY TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 90S FAR EAST AND FAR NORTH FRIDAY
TO VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
DECREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 90S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO AROUND 90 SOUTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS FOLLOWED
BY READINGS AROUND 70 FAR NORTH AND FAR EAST SATURDAY MORNING TO
THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
EXPECT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT KTCL BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED (10-20%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA WITH POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN SITES BUT TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINAL LOCATION.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND FOR KMGM UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
DUE TO LINGERING COMMS ISSUES.
05
FIRE WEATHER
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT INDEX READINGS. LOW-LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES PERSISTING WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 30 0
ANNISTON 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 95 77 96 78 / 10 10 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 94 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10
CALERA 94 76 95 77 / 10 10 20 10
AUBURN 94 77 95 78 / 0 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 95 76 97 78 / 0 0 10 10
TROY 94 75 97 76 / 10 0 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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