305
FXUS64 KBMX 272257
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
- THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF
EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS WITH NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AFFECTING
PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
WESTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA,
WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE MS/AL GULF COASTS, AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING RETROGRADING TOWARDS THOSE AREAS FROM GEORGIA.
AFTER SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE TEMPS/DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
MORNING, THESE WESTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 100F ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THEY MAY ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACH 105F TODAY, HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AS A WEAK VORT MAX INTERACTS WITH
PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN
ON THE TAMER SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT,
LIMITING OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AND RESULTING IN CONTINUED HEAT
STRESS.
THE CENTER OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING RETROGRADES WESTWARD TO
THE ARKLAMISS TOMORROW, PLACING CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND UPWARD.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DIURNAL MIXING OF DEW POINTS,
EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REACH 105-109 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH LOW CHANCES OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 110
DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND EXPANDED FOR
MONDAY TO INCLUDE ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COUNTIES IN EAST-
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO OPEN A PATHWAY
FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA. A FEW CAMS TRY TO INDICATE SOME CONSOLIDATING
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW CLUSTERS WITH GUSTY WINDS/A LOW RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS GIVEN THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THOUGH LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE NON-EXISTENT
SHEAR, A LACK OF DCAPE, AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
32/JDAVIS
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH AN APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE, AND OTHER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CREEPING UP ABOVE 6
C/KM. THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION DOES RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HEAT INDICES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL WARM UP ENOUGH,
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS NOT MIXING OUT AS MUCH, TO ALLOW OUR HEAT
INDICES TO EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH, AND DEW POINTS DON'T MIX OUT AS MUCH, THEN
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 110F, WHICH IS OUR EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA (PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING). OPTED
TO JUST EXTEND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL RATHER THAN ISSUE AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR
SIMPLICITY AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE NEED TO UPGRADE THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING FOR SOME OF OUR COUNTIES. EITHER WAY, THE
EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK PARAMETER IS SOLIDLY IN THE "MAJOR" IMPACTS
CATEGORY.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH CONTINUED IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PWATS OF
2-2.3", CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAT WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST, WHILE A SEASONALLY
STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL
ALLOW AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA. WHILE THE MORE
REFRESHING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA GIVEN THAT IT
WILL BE EARLY AUGUST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
32/JDAVIS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 28/20Z, BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE. ALL TERMINALS (SANS KMGM) ARE CARRYING
PROB30S FOR TSRA PAST 28/21Z.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES PERSISTING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 95 75 96 / 0 30 0 50
ANNISTON 75 93 75 94 / 0 30 0 50
BIRMINGHAM 76 95 77 97 / 0 30 10 50
TUSCALOOSA 76 95 77 96 / 10 30 10 50
CALERA 75 93 77 94 / 0 30 10 50
AUBURN 76 95 77 94 / 0 20 10 60
MONTGOMERY 76 97 78 97 / 0 20 10 60
TROY 75 96 76 96 / 0 10 10 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-LEE-RUSSELL.
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION.../44/
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