827
FXUS64 KBMX 280446
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
- THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A LONG-DURATION PERIOD OF
EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS WITH NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AFFECTING
PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS EAST TO OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION.
EXPECT THE EXPANSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATING WEST ACROSS THE AREA, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY, THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL START TO CONTRACT IN SIZE, EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING AS DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGHING
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
HEAT CONCERNS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED (15-30%) IN COVERAGE
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED (35-45%) CHANCES NORTHWEST WITH SCATTERED (50-70%)
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HEAVY OR STRONG TUESDAY DUE TO STRONG LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY.
HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
TIME FRAME WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST TO READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH AND WEST ON
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND PERSISTENT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CREATE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FAR EAST TO READINGS AROUND 105 WEST. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S WITH A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE NEAR METRO AREAS THEN DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 100 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO READINGS
AROUND 107 ACROSS THE WEST, MAKING TUESDAY THE MOST MISERABLE DAY
FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS THIS WEEK.
05
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ELONGATED AND CONTRACTS IN
SIZE WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING FROM OVER MUCH OF TEXAS NORTHEAST TO
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL FORCE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER
TO HOME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF TEXAS WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY,
A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES
CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATER IN THE DAY
WHILE WEAK TROUGHING ALSO PERSISTS TO ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. A MID-LEVEL
WEAKNESS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY FRIDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING REBUILDING OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA WHILE
THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM
THE NORTH, BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 278
CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING. LONGWAVE TROUGHING MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT
FROM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE MID-LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT DECELERATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED (60-80%) CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH SCATTERED (50-80%) CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 20. EXPECT SCATTERED
(55-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED (40-50%)
CHANCES FAR NORTHWEST WITH SCATTERED (60-80%) ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
AND MAXIMIZED IN THE SOUTHEAST. POPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
ISOLATED (45-50%) NORTH AND WEST TO SCATTERED (55-70%) ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
SOME HEAT RELIEF WILL RESULT WITH THE INCREASED RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES EACH DAY THEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 90 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY FROM
AROUND 90 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH WITH MID
70S COMMON SOUTH AND CENTRAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FRO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST FLOW FROM WEDGING EFFECTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST TO READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY FROM AROUND 80
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO READINGS IN THE MID 80S FAR SOUTH
AND FAR WEST.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 28/20Z, BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE. ALL TERMINALS (SANS KMGM) ARE CARRYING
PROB30S FOR TSRA PAST 28/21Z.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
HEAT RELIEF LATER IN THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 95 74 97 / 0 30 20 50
ANNISTON 74 93 75 94 / 0 30 20 60
BIRMINGHAM 76 95 76 97 / 0 30 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 76 95 77 95 / 0 20 20 50
CALERA 76 94 77 94 / 0 20 20 60
AUBURN 77 94 77 94 / 0 20 20 60
MONTGOMERY 76 96 77 96 / 0 20 20 60
TROY 74 95 75 95 / 0 20 20 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BARBOUR-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-LEE-RUSSELL.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page