168
FXUS64 KBMX 282330
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF, AFFECTING PEOPLE
AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY COVER ALL COUNTIES OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE FROM A
MESSAGING AND PRAGMATIC PERSPECTIVE, EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS IN
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES COME UP JUST SHY OF THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS PWAT VALUES
TREND UPWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A 500 MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
RETREAT TO THE WEST, LEAVING US WITH HOT AND MOIST NORTHERLY
CONTINENTAL FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY DECREASES ABOVE
800 MB AS INDICATED BY OUR MORNING SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF ROBUST AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME LARGER AND MORE IMPRESSIVE.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTH GEORGIA, RESULTING FROM WEAK DOWNSLOPING AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING. THE COMBINATION OF HOT NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY
LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST GEORGIA AND
EAST ALABAMA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG A PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW.
87/GRANTHAM
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE PROSPECTS
OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY EARLY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY, MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN EXTENSION
OF THE HEAT ADVISORY.
87/GRANTHAM
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES ELONGATED AND CONTRACTS IN
SIZE WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING FROM OVER MUCH OF TEXAS NORTHEAST TO
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL FORCE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER
TO HOME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF TEXAS WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY,
A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES
CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATER IN THE DAY
WHILE WEAK TROUGHING ALSO PERSISTS TO ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. A MID-LEVEL
WEAKNESS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY FRIDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING REBUILDING OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA WHILE
THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM
THE NORTH, BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 278
CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING. LONGWAVE TROUGHING MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT
FROM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE MID-LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT DECELERATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED (60-80%) CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH SCATTERED (50-80%) CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 20. EXPECT SCATTERED
(55-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED (40-50%)
CHANCES FAR NORTHWEST WITH SCATTERED (60-80%) ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
AND MAXIMIZED IN THE SOUTHEAST. POPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
ISOLATED (45-50%) NORTH AND WEST TO SCATTERED (55-70%) ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
SOME HEAT RELIEF WILL RESULT WITH THE INCREASED RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES EACH DAY THEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 90 IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY FROM
AROUND 90 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH WITH MID
70S COMMON SOUTH AND CENTRAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FRO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST FLOW FROM WEDGING EFFECTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST TO READINGS AROUND 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY FROM AROUND 80
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO READINGS IN THE MID 80S FAR SOUTH
AND FAR WEST.
05
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THUNDER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS PAST 29/03Z. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH ALL
TERMINALS CARRYING A PROB30 PAST 29/20Z.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND HAS BEEN ADDED AT MGM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A HOT AND MOIST SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 97 74 91 / 10 40 30 80
ANNISTON 74 96 74 91 / 10 50 40 80
BIRMINGHAM 76 97 76 91 / 10 40 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 77 97 77 93 / 10 40 30 70
CALERA 76 96 75 91 / 10 40 30 80
AUBURN 77 94 75 90 / 10 60 40 70
MONTGOMERY 77 97 75 93 / 10 50 50 80
TROY 75 97 74 92 / 10 60 50 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION.../44/
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