103
FXUS64 KBMX 300623
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
123 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT, AFFECTING PEOPLE AND PETS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COMBINING TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 102 TO 110 DEGREES. SOME AREAS HAD ALREADY HIT OUR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE 11 AM THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THERE IS A
BREEZE WHICH MAY HELP IT FEEL MORE BEARABLE AT TIMES, BUT WE'RE
REALLY BANKING ON RAIN TO COOL THINGS DOWN. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT THERE CURRENTLY, AND COVERAGE MAY EXPAND A
BIT FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT BROAD RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN, SO A LOT OF AREAS WILL MISS OUT
ON THE RAIN TODAY. SOME CAMS DO RESOLVE ENHANCED SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY OR OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SO IF THAT MATERIALIZES, THEN AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE A PASSING STORM AFTER DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S, SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ON THE HEAT STRESS AS
WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW, BUT THERE WILL BE A
SUBTLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD FOSTER INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER IN
THE DAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. SO WHILE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO COOL THINGS DOWN,
MANY AREAS MAY STILL REACH HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 107 DEGREES IN THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO FEATURE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES OWING TO THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S INSTEAD OF 90S.
86/MARTIN
PREVIOUS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH
WHILE COMPACT RIDGING PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF TEXAS WITH ANOTHER
AREA OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST, MOVING INTO
THE MID-SOUTH AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO REBUILD TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTHWARD TO OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS ON FRIDAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST, BECOMING
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION SATURDAY AND WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DECELERATE WITH TIME AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST, CLEARING
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS MORE SPECULATIVE
AT THIS POINT AS SOME DISAGREEMENT EMERGES AMONG THE AVAILABLE
GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LIKELY TO
PERSIST OR EVEN BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION, THOUGH ONE SOLUTION SIGNALS A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SCATTERED (45-75%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
FOLLOWED BY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED
(60-75%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
FORECAST AREAWIDE FRIDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BUT LINGERING AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED (30-45%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED (55-80%) EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY PAST SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT GENERALLY ISOLATED (30-45%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND SCATTERED (50-70%) CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FAR EAST TO READINGS IN THE MID 90S SOUTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE
MID 70S SOUTH AND CENTRAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
FAR NORTH AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO READINGS IN THE MID
90S FAR SOUTHEAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70
FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND CENTRAL. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST TO READINGS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST DUE TO WEDGING EFFECTS OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTHEAST TO READINGS NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST TO READINGS
IN THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AT MGM THROUGH 8Z, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CALM OR VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS BEFORE A POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS COULD
IMPACT ASN AND MGM BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AFTER 18/21Z. SITES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF TAF UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE
LOCATION OF STORM FORMATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY EXCEPT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 73 93 72 / 60 40 70 30
ANNISTON 91 75 91 74 / 60 40 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 94 75 93 75 / 50 30 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 94 76 94 75 / 50 20 60 20
CALERA 92 75 92 75 / 50 30 70 30
AUBURN 90 75 90 75 / 60 40 60 30
MONTGOMERY 93 75 93 75 / 60 30 60 30
TROY 92 74 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-RANDOLPH.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...16
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