742
FXUS64 KBMX 300641
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
141 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT, AFFECTING PEOPLE AND PETS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
EVEN OUR COMPUTERS MUST NOT LIKE THE HEAT OUT THERE THIS MORNING
AS LITTLE ISSUES CREEP UP IN THE OFFICE, BUT THE FORECAST IS OUT
AND ALL IS WELL. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105
TO 107 POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LEFT THE NORTHEAST OUT AS THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM A TOUCH BELOW REQUIREMENTS. AS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS
PATTERN AND THUS DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND TIMING EXIST. REALLY
LOOKS LIKE THE SAME SCENARIO AS THIS PAST 24 HOURS, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE. THE BEST WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE AROUND TO INCREASE THE LIFT AND
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS AN
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
16
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO FEATURE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES DUE TO THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S INSTEAD OF 90S.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AT MGM THROUGH 8Z, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH CALM OR VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS BEFORE A POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE CLOUDS COULD
IMPACT ASN AND MGM BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AFTER 18/21Z. SITES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF TAF UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE
LOCATION OF STORM FORMATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY EXCEPT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
16
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 73 93 72 / 60 40 70 30
ANNISTON 91 75 91 74 / 60 40 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 94 75 93 75 / 50 30 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 94 76 94 75 / 50 20 60 20
CALERA 92 75 92 75 / 50 30 70 30
AUBURN 90 75 90 75 / 60 40 60 30
MONTGOMERY 93 75 93 75 / 60 30 60 30
TROY 92 74 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-RANDOLPH.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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