382
FXUS64 KBMX 301119
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT,
AFFECTING PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
EVEN OUR COMPUTERS MUST NOT LIKE THE HEAT OUT THERE THIS MORNING
AS LITTLE ISSUES CREEP UP IN THE OFFICE, BUT THE FORECAST IS OUT
AND ALL IS WELL. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105
TO 107 POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. LEFT THE NORTHEAST OUT AS THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM A TOUCH BELOW REQUIREMENTS. AS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS
PATTERN AND THUS DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND TIMING EXIST. REALLY
LOOKS LIKE THE SAME SCENARIO AS THIS PAST 24 HOURS, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COVERAGE. THE BEST WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST AS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE AROUND TO INCREASE THE LIFT AND
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS AN
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
16
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO FEATURE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES DUE TO THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S INSTEAD OF 90S.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
OVERALL VFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH 21Z. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
MVFR LOW CLOUDS AT KAUO AND KASN THROUGH 14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KAUO AND KMGM SO INCLUDED TEMPO WORDING
AT THESE SITES. ELSEWHERE CONTINUED PROB30S BUT CHANGED TO 21Z TO
3Z. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST IN 24 HOURS AND WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED AT KASN, KAUO, AND KEET.
16
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 73 93 72 / 60 40 70 30
ANNISTON 91 75 91 74 / 60 40 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 94 75 93 75 / 50 30 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 94 76 94 75 / 50 20 60 20
CALERA 92 75 92 75 / 50 30 70 30
AUBURN 90 75 90 75 / 60 40 60 30
MONTGOMERY 93 75 93 75 / 60 30 60 30
TROY 92 74 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-RANDOLPH.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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