737
FXUS64 KBMX 310042
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
742 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 732 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT,
AFFECTING PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIFTING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THERE HASN'T BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS,
AND THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS STILL DOMINATED BY RIDGING CENTERED
OVER TEXAS AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS SUCH, WE WILL
EXPERIENCE BOTH HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, AND ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES SUPPORTED BY THE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN LIFT FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH. CAMS CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, BUT THE CU FIELD IS BUILDING OUT THERE, AND THE HREF QPF
MEAN SUPPORTS 60% POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
RAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO BRING RELIEF TO THE HEAT. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH AS HIGH AS 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
BROAD, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY TOMORROW. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, SO
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW. FORTUNATELY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TREND LOWER BY TOMORROW, BUT THE
MORE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS.
86/MARTIN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN IT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR US BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE
STRONG RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY. IT WILL INFLUENCE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY ACTING AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AND RESULTING IN LOWER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 80S WHILE
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BHM, EET, AND ASN THROUGH 03Z
WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND DOWNBURST-TYPE VARIABLE WIND GUSTS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES DURING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR TCL. SIMILAR AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OR VARIABLE EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 95 73 92 / 40 60 20 70
ANNISTON 74 93 74 91 / 50 70 30 70
BIRMINGHAM 75 94 75 92 / 50 70 30 70
TUSCALOOSA 76 94 76 92 / 30 60 20 70
CALERA 75 93 75 91 / 50 70 30 70
AUBURN 75 92 74 90 / 50 50 30 70
MONTGOMERY 75 95 75 92 / 50 60 30 70
TROY 74 93 74 92 / 40 60 30 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-RANDOLPH.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...56/GDG
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