127
FXUS64 KBMX 310232
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
932 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 906 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT,
AFFECTING PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
TRIGGERED AT THE SURFACE BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
INTERSECTIONS WHICH ARE LIFTING PARCELS VERY EASILY ABOVE THE LFC
ALOFT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT FROM THE SURFACE TO 800MB ARE STILL
FAIRLY STEEP AS MEASURED BY THE 00Z KBMX RAOB WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 600 AND 700 J/KG. AS OF THE 9PM HOUR, THE MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT NOW FIRING IN CHILTON AND COOSA COUNTIES AS A STRONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY (VISIBLE ON RADAR) RACES TO THE NORTH. STORMS
THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40MPH, HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT, AND MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
STORM ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED SYNOPTICALLY BY A 500MB VORTMAX
JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHILE CENTRAL ALABAMA IS WEDGED IN-BETWEEN
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE STORMS OVERNIGHT, AS LOWS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID
70S. WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A "COOL" FRONT HEADS IN OUR
DIRECTION, APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT.
56/GDG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN IT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR US BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE
STRONG RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY. IT WILL INFLUENCE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY ACTING AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AND RESULTING IN LOWER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 80S WHILE
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY.
86/MARTIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BHM, EET, AND ASN THROUGH 03Z
WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND DOWNBURST-TYPE VARIABLE WIND GUSTS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES DURING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR TCL. SIMILAR AVIATION
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OR VARIABLE EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 95 73 92 / 40 60 20 70
ANNISTON 74 93 74 91 / 50 70 30 70
BIRMINGHAM 75 94 75 92 / 50 70 30 70
TUSCALOOSA 77 94 76 92 / 30 60 20 70
CALERA 75 93 75 91 / 50 70 30 70
AUBURN 75 92 74 90 / 50 50 30 70
MONTGOMERY 75 95 75 92 / 50 60 30 70
TROY 74 93 74 92 / 40 60 30 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-
PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...56/GDG
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