443
FXUS64 KBMX 311749
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS,
COUPLED WITH ACCUMULATED HEAT STRESS FROM PRIOR DAYS, WILL
AFFECT PEOPLE AND PETS WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
NUDGES EAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CAN ALSO BE ANALYZED OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL
BRING A NICE RELIEF FROM THIS RELENTLESS HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ONE MORE DAY AS
THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 105-109
RANGE. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT PLANNING TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
INTO FRIDAY AS HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK. SOME OF THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HINT AT A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%)
CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPS EXCEEDING 105F TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-60% RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (NEAR THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY), A PASSING H7 VORT MAX,
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS LIKELY BEING MET. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS JUMP INTO THE 50-70% RANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS
ACROSS CENTRAL AL. GREATEST CHANCES WILL COME FOR THOSE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. A
NEARLY FULLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THEREFORE, WPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
WE REACH PEAK HEATING. TEMPS LOOK TO COOL OFF A BIT LATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HUNG ON A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT
VFR IS NOW PREVAILING. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE COVERAGE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
PROB30 GROUPS. LATEST CAMS WEREN'T AS EXCITED ABOUT OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY LINGERING
OUTFLOWS THAT MAY ACTIVATE A STORM OR TWO. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL HELP PROMOTE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT
RECEIVE RAIN TODAY. WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
NO ISSUES FROM FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
DAYS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MOST FOCUSED
ON THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 93 70 86 / 30 50 20 60
ANNISTON 73 92 72 86 / 30 60 30 70
BIRMINGHAM 74 92 73 89 / 30 60 20 60
TUSCALOOSA 75 93 73 89 / 30 70 30 50
CALERA 75 92 73 88 / 30 60 30 70
AUBURN 75 91 73 86 / 30 60 40 90
MONTGOMERY 76 94 74 89 / 30 70 40 80
TROY 74 93 73 89 / 30 70 40 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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