734
FXUS64 KBMX 312359
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
659 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
- CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH ACCUMULATED
HEAT STRESS FROM PRIOR DAYS, WILL AFFECT PEOPLE AND PETS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY UP NEAR THE KY/TN
BORDER, WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA SERVED AS
A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE, HOWEVER, AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT. WITH ABUNDANT NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE
AND OUTFLOW, THERE WILL BE MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS
DAYS, AND ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGH, HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE POOLS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDICES
REACHING 105 WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER PROBABILITIES FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE ACCUMULATED HEAT
STRESS OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 105 EVERY DAY FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS, WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ONE MORE DAY
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. HEAT RELIEF
IS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.
32/JDAVIS
PREVIOUS SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION:
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
NUDGES EAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CAN ALSO BE ANALYZED OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT AND THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL
BRING A NICE RELIEF FROM THIS RELENTLESS HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ONE MORE DAY AS
THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 105-109
RANGE. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT PLANNING TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
INTO FRIDAY AS HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK. SOME OF THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HINT AT A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%)
CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPS EXCEEDING 105F TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40-60% RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (NEAR THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY), A PASSING H7 VORT MAX,
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS LIKELY BEING MET. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS JUMP INTO THE 50-70% RANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS
ACROSS CENTRAL AL. GREATEST CHANCES WILL COME FOR THOSE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. A
NEARLY FULLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THEREFORE, WPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
WE REACH PEAK HEATING. TEMPS LOOK TO COOL OFF A BIT LATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SERVING AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT IS
APPROACHING MGM/AUO. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR TSRA AT MGM/AUO AND
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE AND THE
POST-OUTFLOW AIR MASS. ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
32/JDAVIS
FIRE WEATHER
NO ISSUES FROM FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
DAYS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MOST FOCUSED
ON THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 93 70 86 / 30 50 20 60
ANNISTON 73 93 72 86 / 30 60 30 70
BIRMINGHAM 74 93 73 89 / 30 60 20 60
TUSCALOOSA 75 94 73 89 / 30 70 30 50
CALERA 75 92 73 88 / 30 60 30 70
AUBURN 75 92 73 86 / 30 60 40 90
MONTGOMERY 76 95 74 89 / 30 70 40 80
TROY 74 94 73 89 / 30 70 40 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-
LEE-MARION-RANDOLPH-WINSTON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-
GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
SHORT TERM...32/JDAVIS
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...32/JDAVIS
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