726
FXUS64 KBMX 011130
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
- CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH ACCUMULATED
HEAT STRESS FROM PRIOR DAYS, WILL AFFECT PEOPLE AND PETS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
LOW-LEVEL LIFT TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE AIDED BY AREAS OF
CONFLUENCE AND CONVERGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FRONT AND EVENTUAL
OUTFLOWS FROM BUDDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING THOUGH, GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN ALONGSIDE SUMMER WARMTH
AND HIGH VERTICAL MOISTURE CONTENT, VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING TIME FRAME.
PRIOR TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND FOR THOSE THAT MISS OUT,
HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 107 DEGREES COULD OCCUR; A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST HEAT ALERT FOR A BIT!
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
IN CONTRAST TO THE PRIOR WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
WEDGE FLOW EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
TIME FRAME MAY STUNT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S FOR PARTS
OF EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA (CLAY, CLEBURNE, RANDOLPH COUNTY AREA).
NBM PROBABILITIES PLACE THIS SCENARIO AT A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE. ELSEWHERE, AND OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE
FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, EARLY-MORNING LOWS COULD REACH THE UPPER
60S FOR SEVERAL COMMUNITIES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND SPELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WE'LL BE UNDERNEATH BROAD 500MB
TROUGHING.
WE MAY SEE MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK (LESS ACTIVITY WEST, MORE
ACTIVITY EAST) AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AND RIDGING BUILDS ATOP THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES, BUT STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 01/15Z,
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ALL TERMINALS CARRYING TSRA
PAST 01/20Z. BEHIND THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, LOW CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY 02/09Z, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
NO ISSUES FROM FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
DAYS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MOST FOCUSED
ON THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 70 87 68 / 70 30 70 50
ANNISTON 92 72 86 69 / 70 30 80 60
BIRMINGHAM 92 73 88 71 / 70 30 70 40
TUSCALOOSA 93 73 89 73 / 70 30 60 30
CALERA 92 73 88 71 / 70 30 80 50
AUBURN 92 74 86 71 / 60 50 90 70
MONTGOMERY 95 75 90 72 / 70 50 90 60
TROY 95 73 90 71 / 60 50 90 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION.../44/
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