661
FXUS64 KBMX 011721
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
- CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH ACCUMULATED
HEAT STRESS FROM PRIOR DAYS, WILL AFFECT PEOPLE AND PETS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING PAINTS A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN. TO OUR WEST, A STOUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. AT THE SURFACE, RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE INDICATIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR, STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE, TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 105-107F THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MAY HELP KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S, AND
KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR HEAT INDICES, GENERALLY IN THE 95-100F
RANGE.
95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A FULLY SATURATED PROFILE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH.
THEREFORE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY. WPC IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR OUR EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
WE WILL HAVE A NICE BREAK FROM THIS WEEK'S RELENTLESS HEAT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WITH THAT SAID, IT IS STILL AUGUST SO
HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNS THAT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
MID 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEDGE FLOW DEVELOPS. RECENT
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-75% CHANCE OF HIGHS UNDER 80F
ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR MGM/AUO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30S TO COVER THE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL AMEND IF COVERAGE
BECOMES GREATER THAN EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING BY MID MORNING.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
NO ISSUES FROM FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
DAYS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MOST FOCUSED
ON THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 87 68 81 / 30 70 50 70
ANNISTON 72 86 69 80 / 30 80 60 70
BIRMINGHAM 73 88 71 81 / 30 70 40 70
TUSCALOOSA 73 89 73 86 / 30 60 30 60
CALERA 73 88 71 83 / 30 80 50 70
AUBURN 74 86 71 80 / 50 90 70 80
MONTGOMERY 75 90 72 85 / 50 90 60 80
TROY 73 90 71 84 / 50 90 70 90
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-
ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.
SHORT TERM...95/CASTILLO
LONG TERM....95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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