402
FXUS64 KBMX 020620
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST INTERSTATE 20.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
BROAD 500MB TROUGHING AND A SURFACE FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE GULF
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN LIFT FROM THESE FEATURES, MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ESPECIALLY IN INSTANCES OF SLOW-MOVING
STORMS AND STORM MERGERS, LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR, RESPECTIVELY.
WEDGE FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY AND, COMBINED WITH
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, RESULT IN A SWATH OF
MILD CONDITIONS (FOR DEEP SOUTH SUMMERTIME STANDARDS) FOR PARTS
OF EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. HERE, NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S;
ELSEWHERE, 80S ARE EXPECTED.
89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
WHILE ITS LONGITUDINAL PLACEMENT MAY FLUCTUATE NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH
AXIS IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF REGION, PINNED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY FEATURES ANOTHER MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND
THEN MEDIUM ON TUESDAY. WITH A SHIFTING PATTERN BY MID WEEK, THESE
FOLKS WILL JOIN THE REST OF THE PACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PERSIST THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z. CEILINGS
FOR A COUPLE TERMINALS COULD BE AS LOW AS IFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TAFS INCLUDE
SOME VARIATION OF VCSH/SHRA WITH PROB30/TEMPO TSRA. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM SATURDAY NIGHT -
MORE ON THAT WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
NO ISSUES FROM FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
DAYS. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MOST FOCUSED
ON THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 69 80 65 / 80 60 70 30
ANNISTON 87 70 80 67 / 80 70 80 40
BIRMINGHAM 88 72 82 67 / 70 50 70 30
TUSCALOOSA 89 72 87 70 / 70 30 50 20
CALERA 88 72 83 69 / 80 50 70 30
AUBURN 87 72 80 68 / 90 80 90 50
MONTGOMERY 90 72 85 70 / 80 60 90 50
TROY 90 72 85 70 / 90 70 90 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...89^GSATTERWHITE
LONG TERM....89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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