093
FXUS64 KBMX 201750
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, WITH COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE REGION WILL REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM HURRICANE ERIN TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH, HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
DROPPING INTO THE LOW-70S, AND HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID-90S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES EBBING AND FLOWING ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOW-90S, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW-70S. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY, AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH, COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT,
WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER-70S AND LOW-80S. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK IN THE LONG-TERM IS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP SETTLING.
THIS WILL MAINLY EFFECT RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG-TERM, AS THE
COLD FRONT PARKING FARTHER SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN THE RAIN CHANCES
STAYING SOUTH AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WITH ALL TERMINALS ALONG I-20 CARRYING TSRA BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER PAST 21/01Z, BEFORE
CONDITIONS SETTLE BACK INTO VFR. WITH THAT BEING SAID, MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW TERMINALS CARRYING IT BETWEEN
21/09-15Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10 MPH. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR MINRH VALUES TO DROP INTO
THE LOW-40% RANGE. HOWEVER, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 20
ANNISTON 71 90 70 89 / 20 20 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 73 90 72 90 / 20 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 74 92 72 91 / 20 20 10 20
CALERA 73 90 72 89 / 20 30 10 30
AUBURN 72 91 72 87 / 10 30 20 50
MONTGOMERY 74 93 73 90 / 20 40 20 40
TROY 72 92 72 90 / 20 40 30 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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