426
FXUS64 KBMX 210534
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, WITH COVERAGE SHIFTING SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE REGION WILL REMAIN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST, AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM HURRICANE ERIN TO OUR EAST. AS SUCH, HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
DROPPING INTO THE LOW-70S, AND HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID-90S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES EBBING AND FLOWING ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOW-90S, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW-70S. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY, AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH, COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT,
WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER-70S AND LOW-80S. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK IN THE LONG-TERM IS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP SETTLING.
THIS WILL MAINLY EFFECT RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG-TERM, AS THE
COLD FRONT PARKING FARTHER SOUTH WOULD RESULT IN THE RAIN CHANCES
STAYING SOUTH AS WELL.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY, AND DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SOME AREAS LATER TODAY, WILL MAKE FOR
A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST. GIVEN THE AMOUNT RAIN THAT OCCURRED IN
AND AROUND BHM, EET, AND ASN, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FOG
DEVELOPED IN THOSE LOCATIONS BEFORE MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS
OUT OF THOSE THREE WOULD BE EET AND ASN (BHM TENDS TO NOT GET AS
MUCH FOG, CLIMATOLOGICALLY). WE'LL UPDATE THE TAFS WHEN AND WHERE
NEEDED IF THE FOG DOES INDEED FORM. AND ANY THAT DOS FORM SHOULD
BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AS FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS, MGM AND AUO PROBABLY HAVE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS FARTHER NORTH. BUT I DON'T
HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ANYWHERE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE
THAN A PROB30 GROUP. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY AFTER
ABOUT 1800 UTC, WITH THE PEAK IN TSRA CHANCES BETWEEN 2000 AND
0000 UTC.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE
TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10 MPH. SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR MINRH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW-40% RANGE. HOWEVER, NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 70 89 69 / 30 20 50 20
ANNISTON 89 71 88 70 / 40 30 60 30
BIRMINGHAM 90 72 89 71 / 40 20 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 72 91 72 / 40 20 40 20
CALERA 89 72 88 71 / 50 20 50 30
AUBURN 89 72 85 71 / 40 40 80 40
MONTGOMERY 93 73 89 72 / 50 30 70 30
TROY 91 72 88 71 / 50 30 70 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION.../61/
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