861
FXUS64 KBMX 210732
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
WE WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE MID-SUMMER WEATHER REGIME
IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST SHORT TERM COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF I-59. TEMPERATURES ALSO
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
/61/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
AS YOU GO MORE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA. THE STORY OF THE LONG
TERM REMAINS THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A HONEST TO GOODNESS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS FRONT SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST BRING A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW
A SECOND COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE PICTURE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. NOW THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THAT SECOND
FRONT IS ABLE TO GET -- THE OPERATIONAL GFS PUSHES IT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS IT JUUUUUUUST TO OUR NORTH AT
FIRST, BEFORE FINALLY GOING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THOSE DETAILS
WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY, AND DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SOME AREAS LATER TODAY, WILL MAKE FOR
A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST. GIVEN THE AMOUNT RAIN THAT OCCURRED IN
AND AROUND BHM, EET, AND ASN, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FOG
DEVELOPED IN THOSE LOCATIONS BEFORE MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS
OUT OF THOSE THREE WOULD BE EET AND ASN (BHM TENDS TO NOT GET AS
MUCH FOG, CLIMATOLOGICALLY). WE'LL UPDATE THE TAFS WHEN AND WHERE
NEEDED IF THE FOG DOES INDEED FORM. AND ANY THAT DOS FORM SHOULD
BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AS FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS, MGM AND AUO PROBABLY HAVE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS FARTHER NORTH. BUT I DON'T
HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ANYWHERE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE
THAN A PROB30 GROUP. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY AFTER
ABOUT 1800 UTC, WITH THE PEAK IN TSRA CHANCES BETWEEN 2000 AND
0000 UTC.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE
TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10 MPH. SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR MINRH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW-40% RANGE. HOWEVER, NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 90 70 89 69 / 30 20 50 20
ANNISTON 89 71 88 70 / 40 30 60 30
BIRMINGHAM 90 72 89 71 / 40 20 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 72 91 72 / 40 20 40 20
CALERA 89 72 88 71 / 50 20 50 30
AUBURN 89 72 85 71 / 40 40 80 40
MONTGOMERY 93 73 89 72 / 50 30 70 30
TROY 91 72 88 71 / 50 30 70 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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