697
FXUS64 KBMX 211750
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE SHORT-TERM WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN A COPY/PASTE FORECAST, AS WE
REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. IN TURN,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER-80S, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW-70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EBB
AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON
THE EAST SIDE, WHERE CONVERGENCE ALOFT IS THE WEAKEST.
/44/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM REMAINS THE COOLING TREND
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY. HERE, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, ULTIMATELY BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FROM HERE, THINGS GET EVEN MORE
INTERESTING, AS SOME OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TWO MORE FRONTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER THE FIRST. AT LEAST ONE OF THESE FRONTS
LOOKS FAR MORE CERTAIN THAN THE OTHER, WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOW-80S. THAT THIRD FRONT CURRENTLY
REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST WINDOW, BUT IN THE EVENT IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, THAT WOULD JUST BE ANOTHER SHOT OF REINFORCED
COOLER AIR.
NOW, WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SECOND FRONT MAKES IT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS MUCH STRONGER ON CERTAIN MODELS, PUSHING
IT FARTHER SOUTH. ELSEWHERE, SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT BARELY MAKING IT
INTO THE REGION. WHILE NEITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL HAVE "MAJOR
IMPACTS" ON THE FORECAST, I'M SURE I'M NOT ALONE IN WISHING FOR THAT
EARLY TASTE OF COOL FALL AIR.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS PROB30S THROUGH 22/01Z.
BEYOND THAT, REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT,
WITH MANY TERMINALS FALLING INTO LIFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 22/16Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS
RETURNING TO MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS BY THEN.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO COMMS ISSUES.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, KEEPING MINRH VALUES ON THE
HIGH SIDE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY,
ALLOWING THOSE MINRH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 40%. OTHERWISE,
20FTWINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 5-10 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 88 69 85 / 20 50 20 60
ANNISTON 71 87 71 85 / 20 60 30 60
BIRMINGHAM 71 88 71 87 / 20 50 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 71 90 71 90 / 10 30 20 40
CALERA 72 88 71 87 / 20 50 20 50
AUBURN 72 85 71 84 / 30 70 40 70
MONTGOMERY 73 89 71 86 / 30 60 30 60
TROY 71 87 71 84 / 30 70 40 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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