038
FXUS64 KBMX 220547
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE SHORT-TERM WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN A COPY/PASTE FORECAST, AS WE
REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. IN TURN,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER-80S, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW-70S. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EBB
AND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON
THE EAST SIDE, WHERE CONVERGENCE ALOFT IS THE WEAKEST.
/44/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM REMAINS THE COOLING TREND
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY. HERE, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, ULTIMATELY BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FROM HERE, THINGS GET EVEN MORE
INTERESTING, AS SOME OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TWO MORE FRONTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER THE FIRST. AT LEAST ONE OF THESE FRONTS
LOOKS FAR MORE CERTAIN THAN THE OTHER, WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOW-80S. THAT THIRD FRONT CURRENTLY
REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST WINDOW, BUT IN THE EVENT IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, THAT WOULD JUST BE ANOTHER SHOT OF REINFORCED
COOLER AIR.
NOW, WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SECOND FRONT MAKES IT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS MUCH STRONGER ON CERTAIN MODELS, PUSHING
IT FARTHER SOUTH. ELSEWHERE, SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT BARELY MAKING IT
INTO THE REGION. WHILE NEITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL HAVE "MAJOR
IMPACTS" ON THE FORECAST, I'M SURE I'M NOT ALONE IN WISHING FOR THAT
EARLY TASTE OF COOL FALL AIR.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
ANOTHER TRICKY SET OF TAFS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH OF THE AREA GOT A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY, AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN MANY SPOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. GET THE FEELING THAT EET, ASN, MGM,
AND AUO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT REDUCED CEILING AND VISIBILITY, AND
HAVE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SIMILARLY, CHANCES OF TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE AS ONE GOES SOUTH AND EAST, WHICH PUTS THE
BEST CHANCES AT MGM AND AUO.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN ADDED AT TCL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE
TO COMMS ISSUES.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY, CAUSING
DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES TO DROP NOTICEABLY. LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A FEW
GUSTS IN AND NEAR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 88 70 86 69 / 50 30 70 30
ANNISTON 86 71 85 70 / 60 40 70 30
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 86 70 / 40 20 60 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 72 90 71 / 20 10 40 20
CALERA 88 71 86 70 / 50 20 60 20
AUBURN 85 71 83 70 / 80 50 80 30
MONTGOMERY 89 71 87 71 / 80 50 70 20
TROY 87 71 84 70 / 80 60 70 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION.../61/
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